You’ve heard it said that only two things are certain in life: Death and taxes. However, I’d like to contend that there’s actually a third thing: Toyota betting on hydrogen, no matter what’s going on in the real world. The automaker just keeps investing in the alternative fuel, despite its full-scale rollout feeling at times farther away than the colonization of Mars. And now, a Toyota Australia executive is on the record saying he believes hydrogen will overtake diesel in our lifetimes.
“Diesel’s not going to go anytime in the next decade, but beyond that, I think hydrogen will take over diesel,” explained Toyota Australia Vice President of Sales, Marketing, and Franchise Operations Sean Hanley to media members, including CarExpert. “I think there’s a culture of diesel in Australia … eventually I think diesel in—not the foreseeable future—but in the longer term, I can’t imagine diesel necessarily being a fuel of the future, because the reality is a petrol [vehicle] can do everything it can do plus some.”
Now, let’s pause for a second. It’s clear that Hanley is speaking with Australia in mind here. Still, the Land Down Under is arguably just in love with diesel fuel as we are in the States, with a lot of its cars and smaller pickups still running on the fuel; we can’t even say that much. So it’s interesting to me that, of all the places in the world where Hanley might see hydrogen becoming more popular than diesel, it’s in Australia.
Hanley points out that Australia has “an abundance of hydrogen,” adding that the country is well-positioned to lead the charge among those looking to get away from fossil fuels. Indeed, the Australian government has announced that it’s on track to be one of the world’s largest hydrogen suppliers by 2030. But as of right now, the infrastructure is still severely lacking. This map of hydrogen fueling stations shows just 13 in total across the entire continent, with all but four of them bunched in the more populated southeastern corner:
You might think the United States is farther along in its adoption of hydrogen when you hear that there are 50 fueling stations here, but then, you learn they’re all in California:
Obviously, Toyota is aware of this. The manufacturer knocked down the price of its lone hydrogen-powered offering, the Mirai, by $25,000 earlier this year in hopes that drivers would take them off its hands. That’s been a struggle ever since the Mirai FCEV was introduced in the U.S.
“I don’t want people to think that hydrogen is suddenly going to be taking off between now and 2030,” Hanley continued. “But in the 2030s, particularly that 2035 horizon, I truly believe hydrogen will be our future—and that’s where, I think, you might see a change of diesel technology … we’re setting up for that future.”
There’s no telling what might happen in the next 10-15 years. As it stands right now, though, diesel is everywhere—and not just in Australia or the States. I’m not trying to condemn hydrogen before it ever has the chance to succeed, but it’s going to take a big change for it to overtake diesel—or a lot more money from Toyota.
“We’re very much invested in hydrogen—nothing’s changed—but it’s not a short-term investment,” Hanley concluded.
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From running point on new car launch coverage to editing long-form features and reviews, Caleb does some of everything at The Drive. And he really, really loves trucks.
