Brad Binder and KTM once looked to be in a relationship of longevity and security, one that the 30-year-old would remain in for the rest of his MotoGP career.
But 2025 has dented the belief that Binder should be the rider to anchor KTM's MotoGP bid beyond the duration of his current contract.
So how has a once-assured future come under threat in the 2027 rider market?
Simon Patterson and Valentin Khorounzhiy explained just this on The Race MotoGP Podcast this week.
Binder has been in good stead at KTM since he first joined the manufacturer as a 17-year-old in the 2012 Moto3 season, with a fruitful career in the lightweight classes culminating in being crowned a Moto3 world champion in 2016.
The South African remained with the team for his Moto2 career before being called on to step up to the premier class - to immediate success.
Binder claimed KTM's first-ever MotoGP victory at the 2020 Czech Grand Prix, and he looked to be the only rider capable of delivering results aboard the RC16 despite occasional flourishes from his counterparts.
However, Binder's infallible status within the KTM ranks has faltered of late, and his results across the season haven't measured up to his usual level of consistency.
While Binder has never been a strong qualifier, he currently faces being whitewashed by team-mate Pedro Acosta, continually finding his grand prix potential hampered by his low starting positions - as Val and Simon debated on the podcast:
Valentin Khorounzhiy: "It's been pretty grim. The primary issue is that qualifying is atrocious. It's ‘20-0 to Acosta' atrocious.
"You can't be the anchor of anything, any manufacturer in MotoGP - which will be his ambition as a guy who has achieved so much - at an 0-20 split to your team-mate because qualifying is so important these days.
"He's talked about this year's bike being less malleable to his riding style and being unintuitive.
"The worry for me is that he's not just suddenly become a dodgy qualifier overnight, it's more like he's managed to keep it above water throughout but now in a difficult season the floor has fallen through.
"You have to show prospective MotoGP teams that even when the circumstances are difficult you can keep the level there or thereabouts.
"He's still bringing home the points but the qualifying form is so bad there's too much to do suddenly. He's able to do more than most but there's too much to do suddenly."
But just how badly has qualifying impacted Binder?
Simon Patterson: "Pedro Acosta has scored five podiums since Brno [in July]. Every other KTM rider has finished on the podium, even if Maverick [Vinales] lost his podium in Qatar for the tyre pressure rule.
"To count five Binder podiums, you have to go as far back as Silverstone 2023. His last podium was the first round of 2024. He's gone two full seasons without a podium essentially. A couple of top fives this year, and that's it.
"For the guy who has had this bike built for him for years as their bid of number one lead it's just not there.
"It's KTM and it's Red Bull, if he survives all of 2026 on the factory bike I would be maybe even a little bit surprised. I don't know if this is going to sustain."
Arguably the biggest threat to Binder's job security is the uncertainty over KTM's future within the MotoGP paddock.
Although KTM has been bailed out by Indian manufacturer Bajaj Auto, it has yet to confirm whether it will remain on the grid for the new regulation cycle in 2027.
Simon Patterson: "We don't know what the long-term ambitions are for the KTM project. We don't know what the new owners want to do with it, where they want to take it.
"They keep saying that racing is something that needs to be cut back."
However, even if KTM does decide to keep its racing programme in MotoGP, Binder could still find himself replaced if his 2025 form carries over to next season.
Although he is unlikely to part ways with KTM until the new regulation cycle, there is already immense pressure from Moto2 rookies who are vying for an opportunity to step up to MotoGP.
Simon Patterson: "If you had to sign one KTM-affiliated rider for 2027 right now, would you sign A) Brad Binder, B) David Alonso or C) Dani Holgado?
"KTM still have a talent stack. Those guys are still erstwhile KTM riders to an extent, they're still a part of that brand programme, they wear the Red Bull hat even if they aren't putting the money into Moto2 and Moto3 the way that they were."
If KTM decides to remain in MotoGP, Binder's spot in its line-up is likely to be highly sought after by plenty of riders - and up for grabs should his form persist in 2026.
Although Binder has been a known quantity, and often asset, to KTM his campaign thus far will put him in uncomfortable discussions over his future.
So, should KTM keep faith with the 30-year-old South African for the long haul?
Valentin Khorounzhiy: "I do still think Brad is a floor-raiser. Even if he qualifies 16th or whatever, you can generally count that that's going to turn into seventh at the finish on Sunday.
"If seventh is what you want then he'll get you seventh.
"For me, Brad Binder's biggest ally right now in the rider market is that I don't see why anyone would sign with KTM for 2027.
"They might as well try to cultivate early renewals hoping that the project gets signed off on with some of the guys under contract.
"That's not going to be Pedro Acosta - he won't sign up for that - but some of the other guys you can look at and Brad is a floor-raiser."
Simon Patterson: "I think there's so much talent further down their ranks that you'd be silly to sign Binder again.
"There's room for KTM to exist, to survive and to possibly thrive going forward, especially with Red Bull always being there to contribute in some way or another.
"With that in mind, I think they need to go into 2026 with the mindset of ‘we need to sign champions for 2027' and not ‘we need to sign Brad Binder to keep the project afloat because he'll take an easy deal.'"
