Who’s fighting for the ERC title?

With two rounds remaining, we asses the chances of the two most likely contenders, Miko Marczyk and Andrea Mabellini

Photography by Red Bull

Words by Luke Barry

Six rounds, six different winners and realistically now just two title contenders remain with two rallies left – yet neither of them are among those six victors.

The tale of the 2025 European Rally Championship has been an intriguing one, with no clear favorite between two Škoda Fabia RS Rally2 drivers.

So who are the title contenders, and what are their expected chances on the final two Tarmac rounds of the year – starting with this weekend’s Rali Ceredigion in Wales?

Marczyk finished second on his home event of Rally Poland in June

The two-time Polish champion (29) started 2025 as an obvious contender given he was the highest-placed driver that returned from 2024.

Known for his consistency and laser-sharp focus driven by a determination to improve, Marczyk has been metronomic in his delivery, if a touch unspectacular, this campaign.

Podiums in Hungary and Rome have boosted his points haul, but failing to score powerstage points in either Sweden or at home in Poland have been detrimental.

He leads the championship by 11 points, but with ERC competitors able to drop one score Marczyk is currently set to sacrifice 13 points (for seventh place at Royal Rally of Scandinavia). And that puts him a net two points behind Andrea Mabellini.

Italian Mabellini also scored a second-place finish on home ground

The Italian (26) has already used his drop score after a painful non-finish in Hungary – occurring on the penultimate stage when he was just 0.7s shy of the leader (and eventual winner) Roope Korhonen.

But aside from Poland where he could only manage eighth place, Mabellini has otherwise been a consistent top-four finisher.

The past two rounds in Rome and Zlín have been particularly fruitful for him as he scooped a second and third, which have earned him the net championship lead.

Progressing through the ERC from Rally5, Rally4 and now Rally2, Mabellini has built on his breakthrough ERC win from last year superbly and has been the fastest full-time driver so far.

While Jon Armstrong shares as many powerstage points as him (17), nobody can match Mabellini’s 15 stage wins from the first three quarters of the season.

Two podiums and a bucketful of powerstage points mean Armstrong retains an outside title chance

Marczyk may well reflect on last month’s Barum Rally as an opportunity missed. While it’s an event that’s typically dominated by Czechs, both Armstrong – and more crucially Mabellini – managed to grab a podium while Marczyk was only seventh.

“I’m not fully happy, but for sure it was my best Barum rally in my life because we lost around three tenths per kilometer to Jan [Kopecký] which is in overall good driving,” Marczyk reflected.

“But to fight this year in the European Rally Championship ’til the end, it’s necessary to fight for the win on each race and this is why I’m not fully happy. But I’m open for the good competition ’til the end and I really would like to show really good performance potential of our driving in Wales and I’m motivated. I will fight ’til the end.”

The Pole also recognized we are entering the phase of the season where he may need to increase the risks.

Mabellini meanwhile declared himself “very proud” of his Barum result and was well aware of what it meant for his championship dreams.

“Yeah, this was really important,” he said. “We gained some good points and it’s been great, great, great. It seems like we are 11 points behind now, but taking out the worst result of Marczyk, it seems like we are in front.

“So it could be better with the Hungarian result, but we must be, as I said many times, proud of what we have done. And let’s see in the next one, still two to go.”

Accidents or misfortune could well be the decisive factor. Any drama would hit Mabellini harder, as he has no safety net score to rely on.

But equally, judging on recent form, Mabellini is narrowly the favorite – despite his total points disadvantage.

Mabellini ran well on last year's Rali Ceredigion, finising second to champion Hayden Paddon

Marczyk hasn’t beaten his rival on any of the asphalt rounds so far this season and was fourth in Wales last year with Mabellini second (albeit just 7.2s behind). The Pole has competed in Croatia once before though, while Mabellini hasn’t.

The result in Ceredigion (September 5-7) will likely be crucial. Marczyk can technically wrap up the title there, but Mabellini can also seize the advantage with a big score.

And if either of them slip up, M-Sport’s Armstrong isn’t mathematically out of this one either, and is tipped to go well on stages close to home this week.

Words:Luke Barry

Tags: Andrea Mabellini, Croatia Rally 2025, ERC, ERC 2025, Miko Marczyk, Rali Ceredigion

Publish Date September 4, 2025 DirtFish https://dirtfish-editorial.s3-accelerate.amazonaws.com/2025/08/6ckorrC0-SI202508160118-780x520.jpg September 4, 2025

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