What's really going on with the Verstappen-Mercedes talks

While there is no doubt that Mercedes and Max Verstappen's representatives have held talks in recent weeks about a potential future Formula 1 tie-up, what is less clear is the end game at play from both sides.

Is this really about Mercedes wanting to make a shock swoop to lure Verstappen away from Red Bull for 2026?  Or is this more about longer-term options for 2027 and beyond?

Or perhaps it is all just a convenient ploy that helps both parties strengthen negotiating hands elsewhere?

The cynics would suggest Mercedes can drive down George Russell's pay demands if he knows someone else is sniffing around his seat, while the Verstappen camp can push up what Red Bull will put on the table to keep its number one on board if it gets to the point where they need to renegotiate a contract for fear of losing him.

There probably is no ultimate truth to what is playing out either, as the motivations from both camps are likely coming from different directions and they don't want them to be revealed.

However, based on what we have learned speaking to sources with good knowledge of the situation, there are some interesting elements that give us a clue about where things may go both over the next few weeks and the longer term.

The emergence of the talks between Mercedes and Verstappen seemed particularly fascinating because back in April team boss Toto Wolff had ruled out any resumption of efforts to lure the reigning champion.

He had told Sky F1: "I always say I don't flirt outside if I'm happy in the relationship, professionally.

"I'm super happy with the line-up that we have. I couldn't wish for anything better, and Max is at Red Bull. We haven't had a conversation, we're continuing our trajectory."

On the face of it then, that discussions have taken place now suggests the situation has changed and that Wolff has decided to move because he is seeking a driver change.

But things may not be quite like that, with one source suggesting that rather than these talks being about Wolff trying to lure a new driver on board, they were instead kicked off by an approach from the Verstappens wanting to have a chat about the future.

Were that to be the case, it would be logical for Wolff to agree to speak – because it is the job of every team boss to speak to every driver's management and know how things are shaping up for the future.

This is why Wolff was so open with Russell about the discussions taking place – because there is no secret plot to lure Verstappen.

They also fully explain the words he chose to use in the press conference at the Austrian Grand Prix when it came to discussing the Verstappen situation.

Asked about what had changed based on his remarks earlier in the year where he said he would not be "flirting" with Verstappen any more, he said: "Define flirting. No, nothing's changed. There is no 'flirt' in that sense. Depends how you act. You can flirt, or you have conversations."

If you are approached by someone you like for a chat, is that flirting or just being polite?

What seems safe to say is that Verstappen and his management are weighing up his F1 future.

With Red Bull's F1 dominance having been wiped away, and the swirling question marks over the team's ability to fight at the front with its own power unit next year, it is clear that the four-time champion is approaching a potential crossroads – both in his career and life.

In racing terms, the next couple of years could well dictate if he goes on to become the most successful driver in F1 history or not.

With the power units set to be so critical to success in the next rules set that kicks off in 2026, being on the wrong side of things with Red Bull could leave Verstappen becoming purely a supporting actor.

Nobody knows right now which manufacturer has done the best job with the new power units, so making a big change into 2026 requires very much a leap of faith.

The word in the paddock is that Mercedes appears to be favourite in terms of nailing the new engines, but that will not be proven until the cars hit the track for the first time.

And it is only once the true competitive picture of next year's regulations becomes clear over the first half of the campaign that drivers will really know where they need to start trying to force their way into.

The smartest move right now for any driver is to have freedom at the end of next year – so they can jump ship if their current team is not up to scratch and get themselves into a more competitive car for 2027.

That appears to be the game that Verstappen is playing, with sources suggesting that any move to another F1 team is unlikely to happen until 2027 at the earliest – so any discussions taking place are more about that.

But equally, that does not mean that he and Red Bull can sit back and think it's guaranteed that Verstappen will stay on for next year.

The Verstappens are clearly not happy with the current form of the Red Bull car, and want to see improvements made – and will keep ramming that point home to team management.

Verstappen's manager Raymond Vermeulen was pretty active in Austria last weekend – being seen in a lengthy chat with Red Bull team boss Christian Horner on Saturday morning, and then being spotted deep in conversation with Red Bull's managing director Oliver Mintzlaff late on Sunday evening.

Asked himself what he wanted to see from Red Bull in the future, Verstappen said: "I mean, there are bits coming, but is it enough to challenge McLaren? I'm not sure. Probably not.

"But I also don't want to sound depressed or whatever. I know that everyone in the team always gives it 100%. And we keep pushing, keep learning, keep trying to bring more performance to the car. And that's the only thing that we can do."

It is the uncertainty about where things are heading, which is increased by Red Bull's switch to its own engines, that is likely to have driven the Mercedes talks just to see how the land lies for the future.

And it also conveniently reminds Red Bull that it is going to be kept on its toes to ensure that it keeps hold of its star asset.

But as Red Bull team boss Christian Horner said: "We know what the situation is with Max, we know what the contracts are with Max. The rest is all noise that's not coming from here."

One more leftfield idea that emerged in the Austria paddock was that the main decision Verstappen is likely making for 2026 is not about Red Bull or Mercedes.

Instead, it is about whether he races on with Red Bull or goes and does something completely different.

This is based on a theory that, after 11 years of F1, it's time for a break - especially having just become a father.

It has been suggested that this internal debate is what stopped him wholeheartedly publicly committing to seeing through his Red Bull contract into next year last weekend.

Asked about being at Red Bull in 2026, he said: "I don't think we need to talk about that. I don't know, do you want me to repeat what I said last year? I don't know. It's the same answer.

"I don't even remember what I said last year, really. But again, it's not really on my mind. Just driving well, trying to push the performance, and then we focus on next year."

There have been more indications recently of him getting frustrated with some of the soap opera elements of F1.

One example was the repeated media questions he faced about his risk of getting banned after totting up the 11 points on his licence.

After being probed yet again in the Thursday press conference in Austria, Verstappen said: "You're joking? Is this like a trap? I'm getting this question every single time, every weekend."

Stepping away from F1 would at least stop a lot of these off-track annoyances – and there is probably no better time to do it than now.

With the 2026 rules being such a reset in terms of potentially ripping up the formbook and resetting the grid, being on the sidelines to see how it all plays out to know where you need to be for 2027 has some logic to it.

There is also some evidence that a spark has been lit inside Verstappen as the result of the expanded programme of his own Verstappen.com Racing team.

We have already seen him testing at the Nurburgring Nordschleife and at Spa-Francorchamps last week ahead of the Spa 24 Hours – which he preferred to do over the F1 movie premiere in New York.

And in a very telling remark in the wake of his early exit from the Austrian GP about why he waited 40 minutes to make his mandatory appearance at the television media pen, he said it was not because he wanted to see how events at the Red Bull Ring were playing out.

"To be honest I didn't really follow the race too much," he said. "I was watching the Spa 24."

With so many factors up in the air, matters are unlikely to be resolved imminently – especially because there are contract option dates that need to come into play to decide things.

It is known that Verstappen has a performance clause in his current contract with Red Bull that runs through to 2028 – although the exact details of this have not been made public.

But even based on the two versions that have most credibility – that Verstappen needs to either be outside the top two in the drivers' championship, or the top three, by a point before the summer break (most likely July 31) if he is to have the right to trigger an exit clause – right now that moment has not been reached.

Plus, if the contract exit clause only kicks in if he is outside of the top three in the standings, then equally that may well not happen at all. He is third in the standings right now, so much will depend on if fourth-placed Russell can close him down.

From Mercedes' perspective, the likelihood remains that it will do a deal with Russell for 2026 – but where the pay stacks up and how long the contract is for appear to be the elements that are not defined yet.

The mini-summer break between the British Grand Prix and the double-header in Belgium/Hungary is logically the perfect point to get things over the line, with an announcement to follow shortly after.

Should the Verstappens be indicating that they are leaning towards being free agents for 2027, then it would be logical for Mercedes to keep its options open and ensure that it does not let an opportunity to sign the four-time champion fall to someone else like Aston Martin.

Wolff himself is clear that there will not be months of waiting to see what Verstappen does, nor does he want to keep Russell on tenterhooks to see how things play out. There is a clear timeline set out in his head.

"You need to be respectful towards the stakeholders in all of that process, the organisation, the drivers, everybody," he said. "You need to understand the way forward.

"I don't want to be sadistic in letting a driver wait or not taking any decisions when it should be taken. So I feel we're in a good space.

"We are in June. Obviously, there's lots of discussion around that. I've been open with it and transparent and at a certain stage, and then in the next couple of months - in England, it's ['a couple' means] two – so until the summer break. Everything is going to be done before."