Demand for used electric vehicles could soon overtake equivalent petrol and diesel cars, according to a study.
Research carried out by the University of Exeter claims second-hand EVs may be 'close to a tipping point' where they become more popular than used internal combustion engine (ICE) cars.
It made the bold statement after analysing data from car sales website Auto Trader, comparing daily views of adverts for EVs with used ICE models.
And it found interest in second-hand EVs is growing rapidly, doubling from 3.5 per cent of advert views in 2022 to 7 per cent in 2023.
Its Global Systems Institute research department said interest in EVs - importantly - became more 'sticky', as drivers spent increased amounts of time hunting for pre-owned battery cars.
It said rising fuel prices - which peaked at record highs in July 2022 when petrol hit 191.5p-a-litre and diesel at 199p - trigger a hike in EV advert views, and over time these spikes of attention lasted longer and longer.
Used EVs are 'close to tipping point' where they become more popular than second-hand petrol and diesel cars, according to new research by Exeter University's Global Systems Institute
The study pointed to car markets in Norway in particular, which last year saw EVs account for nine in ten new car registrations, as well as Iceland, Sweden, the Netherlands and China, where battery vehicle sales are booming.
It also referenced global demand for electric models doubling every 1.5 years on average.
'To identify a possible tipping point, we look for evidence that the status quo [petrol and diesel cars] may be losing resilience – becoming unstable,' explained Dr Chris Boulton, from Exeter’s Global Systems Institute.
'For example, in the Amazon rainforest we examined daily vegetation changes and found the forest is recovering more slowly from disturbances like droughts – making it vulnerable to a tipping point.
'In the case of second-hand EVs, we analysed data from 2018 to 2023. Early in that period, spikes in EV interest subsided quickly, in just a few days. Later spikes lasted longer, up to several weeks.
'And over time, EVs made up a larger and larger proportion of the ‘baseline’ state.
'This is a strong signal that UK drivers are becoming more receptive to second-hand EVs – and this will probably increase further as technology continues to improve, prices continue to fall and more EVs reach the second-hand market.'
Its analysis of historical Auto Trader advert views suggests a high concentration of EVs available in the £20,000 to £30,000 price range in recent years. It said as time passes and more EVs enter the second-hand market, cheaper options will become more readily available and trigger increased demand.
It added: 'Also, the diversity of the market increases in terms of the spread of prices, with more expensive EVs becoming available in later years, which may signal a new niche emerging.'
The report claims UK drivers are becoming 'more receptive to second-hand EVs' and this will 'probably increase further as technology continues to improve, prices continue to fall and more EVs reach the second-hand market'
Professor Tim Lenton, also from the University of Exeter, said: 'Our findings provide a clear signal that the status quo – dominance of petrol and diesel cars – is becoming less stable.
'This is an early opportunity signal to the government and to investors to drive change, knowing that they will get a disproportionate return on their efforts.
'Now we know this tipping point may be happening, actions can be taken to accelerate it – helping to cut the 13 per cent of the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions that come from cars.'
The university said policies to support this tipping point could include more EV charging points (including on-street charging in residential areas), simpler charging services, and improving the electricity grid.
'Many interlinked factors could drive the market towards a tipping point to an EV-dominated state, including declining cost of batteries, government policy incentives for EV adoption or forthcoming bans on ICE vehicles, car manufacturers switching strategy and technology investment, public and private investment in charging infrastructure, and increased public acceptance of EVs,' it said.
'Also, as the ICE vehicle market and then the ICE vehicle stock shrinks, fuel infrastructure will start to decline, making it less attractive and less convenient to own an ICE vehicle in a self-propelling decline.'
Petrol is still the most dominant overall fuel type in the used car market, latest SMMT figures show. However, second-hand EV transactions are growing at a rapid rate
In the new car market, EVs are on course to overtake petrol and diesel sales globally.
For the UK, however, electric models are still some way behind petrol. That said, in February. EVs accounted for a quarter of registrations in Britain.
Latest industry figures show that Britain's used car market recorded a bumper year with second-hand EV sales surging in 2024.
Used car sales were up 5.5 per cent as a whole with 7,643,180 used vehicles changing hands.
With more pre-owned EVs available on the second-hand market, transactions jumped a whopping 57.4 per cent in 2024.
Yet, used EVs still represent only 2.5 per cent of second-hand motor sales in Britain.
The record increase in demand for electric cars last year was hailed as a 'good sign' for both customers and the Government as it pushes towards its net zero targets.
Colin Walker, head of transport at the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit, said: 'It is no coincidence that such strong sales growth comes on the back of EVs largely reaching price parity with petrols on the second-hand market.
'It demonstrates that once prices come down, the demand for electric driving is very much there.'
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