It’s safe to say business is booming at Toyota. In 2024, it remained the world’s largest carmaker for the fifth consecutive year. Earlier this month, Chief Financial Officer Kenta Kon highlighted “strong demand for our products. We can barely cover the demand.” Looking ahead, the Japanese automotive giant is confident it can meet its 2025 full-year sales forecast of 9.8 million vehicles, representing 4.7 percent year-over-year growth.
With thick order books and customers willing to wait, Toyota allegedly feels comfortable stretching its product life cycles even further. From an average five-year run, extended to seven years during the 2000s, next-generation models could now stick around for close to a decade. According to Nikkei Asia, replacements for “flagship models” are likely to come every nine years.
In this context, “flagship” refers to core global models such as the RAV4 and Corolla, while region-specific vehicles will follow separate strategies based on local market conditions. Toyota already has some of the longest life cycles in the industry, but that doesn’t appear to bother buyers. The company seems confident that keeping models around even longer won’t drive customers away.
The signs have been visible for a while. The current Corolla has been on the market since 2018, and the newly revealed concept suggests its successor is still at least two years away. The outgoing RAV4 ran for seven years before its replacement arrived a few months ago. An even more striking example is the 4Runner, whose previous generation lasted an astonishing 15 years. However, the undisputed leader is the Land Cruiser 70 Series, which has been in production for an amazing 41 years.
Toyota’s plan to stretch the life cycles of its main models to nine years would give the company more time to deliver over-the-air software updates. Electrification also plays a role, as hybrids and EVs stand to benefit from ongoing upgrades.
Not everyone supports the move. Some domestic dealerships have expressed concern about diminishing returns. The longer a car stays on sale, the more likely it is that dealers will need to offer larger discounts to attract buyers, but these discounts cut into their margins.
In response, Nikkei reports that Toyota has assured dealers that wholesale prices will remain stable throughout the nine-year cycle. Dealers profit from the difference between wholesale pricing and what customers ultimately pay. Meanwhile, Toyota benefits from not having to redesign products as frequently, though in an increasingly competitive market, most life cycles are trending shorter.
Ultimately, the decision comes down to customer preferences. Some buyers want the newest model the moment it arrives, while others prefer the reassurance of purchasing a vehicle that has matured over time. There’s a long-standing belief that early production years can carry teething issues that get resolved later in a model’s run.
With software now playing an ever-greater role in vehicles, it’s understandable why some shoppers might prefer to wait for a thoroughly refined product rather than rushing to buy the latest version. I know I would.
