Older drivers are NOT more dangerous than younger motorists: Experts claim elderly are safe behind the wheel despite tragic death of boy, 3, mowed down by 91-year-old woman
Older drivers are NOT more dangerous than younger motorists: Experts claim elderly are safe behind the wheel despite tragic death of boy, 3, mowed down by 91-year-old woman
Four years after the tragic death of Xander Irvine, a three-year-old boy killed after an elderly car driver in Edinburgh lost control of her vehicle, the law governing older motorists is under fresh scrutiny.

By Les Roopanarine

Published: 03:06 AEDT, 28 October 2024 | Updated: 19:19 AEDT, 5 November 2024

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Four years after the tragic death of Xander Irvine, a three-year-old boy killed after an elderly car driver in Edinburgh lost control of her vehicle, the law governing older motorists is under fresh scrutiny.

At a public inquiry into the fatal accident, which occurred on 30 June 2020, the sheriff principal Nigel Ross said Edith Duncan, a 91-year-old with undiagnosed dementia, should never have been behind the wheel.

Under existing UK rules, drivers must renew their licenses at the age of 70 and every three years thereafter. As part of that process, they are required to reveal any medical condition or disability that could affect their driving, including dementia, insulin-treated diabetes, Parkinson's disease, epilepsy and neurological or vision issues.

Ross described the system as ‘significantly defective’, advocating that the self-certification process should be restricted to drivers below the age of 80, with any licence renewal at that point dependent on a cognitive assessment.

‘[The current system] fails to identify unfitness to drive in applicants who either deliberately or unintentionally fail to give correct information on the relevant application form,’ said Ross, who argued the form should be expanded to get a fuller picture of applicants’ fitness to drive.

‘It fails to recognise that driving ability may decline with age, or that dementia sufferers may be unaware of their own condition.’

Xander Irvine, aged three, was killed by a 91-year-old driver while walking with his mother, Victoria, on Morningside Road in Edinburgh on 30 June 2021

The tragedy triggered a wave of grief in the community, with numerous floral tributes left for Xander, who was described by his parents as a 'very happy, bubbly, intelligent little boy'  

Victoria and Paul Irvine have said they hope Xander’s story 'will go some way in changing not just the legal systems in place but also public perception towards driving in older age'

Any change to the status quo would necessitate fresh government legislation, however - a prospect complicated by the broad consensus among road safety experts that older motorists do not pose a greater risk.

‘As a cohort, older drivers are not more dangerous than middle-aged groups,’ said Professor Charles Musselwhite of Aberystwyth University, a leading authority on the relationship between ageing and driving.

‘There is an increase in numbers in official statistics, but that is because reporting only includes injuries and deaths, and as such those aged 75 and above will more likely appear there due to fragility; they are more likely to be injured or killed from collisions they would have walked away from in middle age.’

Figures show that younger drivers are at greater risk of being involved in accidents, with government casualty statistics indicating that young male drivers are ‘four times as likely to be killed or seriously injured’ than seasoned motorists.

Musselwhite points out that older people take fewer risks and are more likely to observe the rules of the road, particularly when it comes to speed limits. He also argues that elderly motorists compensate for the physical changes associated with ageing – ‘poorer eyesight, poorer hearing, changes in working memory, slower reaction times’ – by driving with greater care and avoiding situations that make them uncomfortable, such as driving at night or during rush hour.

Figures provided by the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency indicate that roughly 6 million people in the UK aged 70 or above currently hold a full driving licence. About 1.6 million of those motorists are at least 80 years old. 

The DVLA revealed earlier this year that more than 150,000 motorists are aged 90 or above – double the number of a decade ago.

But Rob Heard, a road safety sergeant for the Hampshire police and chair of the Older Drivers Forum, echoes the view that the growing prevalence of older motorists on our roads does not pose a danger.

Following a public inquiry, sheriff principal Nigel Ross has branded the self-certification system for drivers over 70 ‘significantly defective’, urging reforms to the process

Following the tragedy, members of the public bearing flowers lined the streets to pay their respects as Xander Irvine's funeral cortege passed

 ‘When we get into our middle age we are safest and then, when we get to around 80 years old, things change again and risk increases,' said Heard.

‘We all age differently: there are drivers in their 40s who are no longer fit to drive, but likewise there are drivers in their late 90s and 100s who are perfectly fit to drive. However, ageing can creep up on us all, often without us realising the effects it can have.

‘I do feel we should have compulsory eyesight testing at licence renewal at the age of 70 years and every licence renewal thereafter. Research shows that 90% of driving is visual and we need to see hazards on the road to avoid them.’

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To that end, Heard is reprising a national vision and driving campaign encouraging police forces throughout the country to check drivers’ ability to read a number plate at the legally required distance of 20 metres.

Initially trialled between February and March of last year, the initiative – entitled Is Your Vision Roadworthy? – gathered data taken from 898 drivers, 17 of whom had their licences revoked.

The average age of the disbarred motorists was 70.6 years.

As Heard acknowledges, however, not all accidents involving the elderly are caused by failing eyesight, with ‘hearing, reaction time and judgement of speed and distance’ potentially ‘not as sharp as it once was’.

Such factors undoubtedly contributed to Xander Irvine’s death, which Ross concluded was the result of cognitive impairment on the part of Duncan, who died before she could face prosecution. Had the pensioner’s mental acuity been assessed before the fatal accident, said Ross, it would have led to a fuller appraisal of her driving ability - and the revocation of her licence.

The death of Cassie McCord, 16, who was fatally struck by an 87-year-old motorist's car in 2011, led to the introduction of new rules surrounding the revocation of driving licences 

Cassie's mother, Jackie, pictured here with her daughter, led a successful campaign to alter the rules known as 'Cassie's law'. The Irvines hope Xander's story can also effect change

Heard says he would support ‘any idea that would make sure we are all safe to drive, as long as it is fully tested and shown to make a difference’.

While many older people would welcome advice from their GPs about when to stop driving, doctors often counter that they have not been trained to identify the conditions that might prompt such a decision. And as Musselwhite points out, there is little evidence that tests – whether of driving ability, medical condition or cognitive ability - make any difference to collision rates among older drivers.

‘Countries that have more stringent tests have no fewer road traffic collisions for, or by, that age group,’ said Musselwhite. ‘Famously, Denmark introduced a medical test via a GP and then took it out, as it made no difference. We need more evidence as to what might work before we make a change.’ 

For those on the accident frontline, however, bitter experience is frequently all the evidence required to make the case for legislative reform. 

‘I’ve seen firsthand the tragic outcomes of accidents involving elderly drivers,’ said one experienced firefighter, speaking on condition of anonymity.

‘While I understand the importance of independence, particularly for those over 70, it's concerning when drivers in their 80s or 90s are still behind the wheel without regular assessment.

‘I’ve responded to several calls where an older driver has mistakenly hit the accelerator instead of the brakes – something I've never seen with younger drivers. I would fully support the introduction of a regular testing system for drivers over 80 to ensure both their safety and the safety of others.’

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Between 2004 and 2023, the number of drivers over 70 involved in a collision that resulted in death or serious injury rose from 3,082 to 3,451, an increase of 12%. Across the same period, accidents resulting in death or serious injury among other car drivers fell by 45%, from 37,023 to 20,397.

A YouGov poll conducted last summer indicated that 65% of Britons would be in favour of a law requiring motorists to retake their driving tests at the age of 70.

While altering the status quo will not be easy, change is not without precedent. The death of Cassie McCord, a 16-year-old who was fatally struck by the vehicle of an 87-year-old driver in 2011, led to the introduction of new rules - known as ‘Cassie’s law’ - allowing police to revoke licences instantly.

The driver, Colin Horsfall, failed a police eyesight test in the days leading up to the tragedy but refused to surrender his licence, prompting a successful campaign for change by McCord’s mother, Jackie.

Paul and Victoria Irvine, the parents of Xander, hope their son’s death can be a similar catalyst for change, both to the law and to the way people view elderly motorists.

'We welcome the sheriff principal’s strong recommendations and really hope this can be the starting point for positive changes to the system,' the couple said in a statement.

'We hope that Xander’s story will go some way in changing not just the legal systems in place but also public perception towards driving in older age.'

Published by Associated Newspapers Ltd

Part of the Daily Mail, The Mail on Sunday & Metro Media Group

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