By ROB HULL, MOTORING EDITOR
The number of electric cars on the road in Britain are set to surpass diesels by the end of the decade, according to analysis of the nation's motor parc.
With sales of new diesels shrinking significantly since the 2015 emissions cheating scandal and the Government introducing binding EV sales targets between now and 2035 to increase uptake, a think tank projects battery models will overtake the traditional fuel type sooner than you might expect.
Registered diesel cars on the road fell to 9.9million in June last year, which is 21 per cent down on the diesel peak of 12.4million motors, the report found.
In contrast, there are believed to be approximately 1.7 million EVs registered today.
However, despite this sizable gap in the number of cars on the road, EV-promoting think tank New AutoMotive has calculated that - based on continued declines in sales of new diesel cars and the growth of the EV market - electric vehicle numbers will overtake diesels by 2030.
'Ending the use of diesel is essential to clean up Britain's choking cities,' said Ben Nelmes, chief executive at the EV campaigning group.
'The UK is now rolling out electric cars at a rapid pace, and this is great news for everyone that enjoys clean air, quieter streets and really cheap running costs.'
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Despite the Government's proposed ban on new petrol and diesel cars from 2030, and the introduction of the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate to force manufacturers to annually increase their EV sales over the next decade, the transition isn't happening as fast as some had originally predicted.
In 2025, some 473,348 new electric cars were purchased, financed or leased by UK drivers, fleets and businesses.
This was a 23.9 per cent increase on the 381,970 registered in 2024.
With total passenger car sales just surpassing two million, it means almost one in four (23.4 per cent) of new motors entering the road last year were fully electric.
This is behind the ZEV mandate's 28 per cent target for 2026, which rises to 33 per cent this year.
However, sales of lower-emitting combustion cars and hybrid registrations are likely to shield car makers from fines of £12,000 per vehicle registration short of the mandated threshold.
In the meantime, just 103,906 new diesel passenger cars were sold in Britain last year, which accounted for a 15.6 per cent year-on-year decline and means just one in 20 car registrations were models with diesel engines under the bonnet.
Only a decade ago, some 1.28 million diesel models entered the road in a calendar year, making up almost half (49 per cent) of all new vehicles purchased in the UK in 2015.
At the end of the decade, EVs will be more commonplace on our streets, with 6.98 million registered against a smaller pool of diesel of just 5.03 million cars, New AutoMotive predicts
This DfT chart tracks the dramatic decline in sales of new diesel cars since the VW Dieselgate scandal hit in 2015
According to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, an automotive industry lobby group, electric cars in 2024 made up only 4 per cent of the cars on UK roads, compared with 32 per cent diesels.
The vast majority of the car parc is petrol powered (58 per cent), while the remaining 6 per cent were hybrids, which mostly combine a smaller battery with a petrol engine.
But with the diesel fleet growing older and those first registered during the early noughties 'dash for diesel' are increasingly being scrapped, an expanding network of newer electric cars means that the gap in numbers between these two fuel types will close to nothing in less than five years, the research claims.
By the end of 2026, New Automotive projects there will be 8.77 million diesels and 2.38 million EVs.
By 2027, volumes will hit 7.93 million and 3.12 million respectively and by 2028 it will close to within three million units as the diesel car parc drops to 7.04 million and EVs expand to 4.14 million owned.
And 2029 will be the last year that diesel volumes on our road will exceed EVs (6.08m to 5.42m respectively) before the crossover happens in the year 2030.
At the end of the decade, EVs will be more commonplace on our streets, with 6.98 million registered against a smaller pool of diesel of just 5.03 million cars, New AutoMotive predicts.
The latest figures for 2024 show that just under a third of all cars in the UK run on diesel. New AutoMotive says numbers will dramatically decline in the next decade
Nelmes went on: 'The UK imports billions of pounds of diesel every year, and we have been completely reliant on other countries to feed our thirst.
'Thankfully, we're switching to electric cars at a rapid rate, and that will make the country cleaner and wealthier.'
Despite the downfall of diesel cars in Britain, this won't be the case for vans and larger commercial vehicles.
The number of diesel vans has continued to rise in recent years and currently sits at a record 4.4 million, with businesses still seeing the traditional fuel as the answer.
The report also suggested that motorists in major cities who are ditching their diesel cars to avoid costly emissions charging zones is pushing a greater concentration of diesel cars into more rural areas.
The report shows that sales of diesel by litres/day have declined more in London than anywhere else in Britain
Petrol stations in London will stop selling diesel to drivers within the next four years due to a lack of demand for the fuel in the capital while electric cars become more popular, the thinktank has estimated
Matt Finch, an environmental policy expert who co-wrote the report, added: 'We didn't leave the stone age because we ran out of stones, and we're leaving the diesel age because we now have a far better replacement.
'No-one is denying diesel hasn't been useful, but it has had its day.'
Ginny Buckley, the chief executive of Electrifying.com, the electric car buying and advice site said: 'Diesel isn't being phased out - it's being replaced.
'The surge in electric car sales has sounded its death knell, exposing diesel as old technology in a market that's moved on.
'Drivers aren't making a political statement they're simply doing the maths.
'EVs are cheaper to run, cleaner to live with and increasingly powered by energy we generate here in the UK rather than imported oil.
'This isn't a culture war - it's a technology upgrade.'
New AutoMotive's report also predicted that the decline in diesel see London become the first diesel-free city in the UK by the end of the decade.
With drivers in the capital subject to the Ultra Low Emission Zone, which sees all but the latest Euro 6 diesel cars incurring daily charges of £12.50, the think tank believes Londoners will ditch the fuel type by 2030.
As such, it says fuel stations will stop selling diesel in the capital as early as 2030.
And by 2035, it predicts that 8,400 filling station forecourts across the UK will no longer offer diesel to drivers.
The report stated: 'It is likely that some, and perhaps many, filling stations in London will stop stocking diesel before the end of the decade.'
It added: 'Nationwide, it is clear that diesel fuel sales are falling, and this is being driven by the reduction in car numbers.
'Whilst it is impossible to accurately predict when the majority of filling stations will stop stocking diesel, it is clear that that there is a distinct possibility that many will over the 2030s.'
John Lewis, chief executive of char.gy, said: 'The data shows diesel will disappear first in towns and cities, and that's exactly where the need for local, everyday charging is growing fastest.
'Over the next decade, as some filling stations stop stocking diesel, communities will see more reliable on-street charging close to home emerge as a clear alternative.'
