The Hagerty Market Rating measures the current status of the collector car market in terms of activity or “heat,” directional momentum, and the underlying strength of the market. It is expressed as a closed 0-100 number with a corresponding open-ended index (like the DJIA or NASDAQ Composite). To learn more about how we calculate the Hagerty Market Rating, read here.
The Hagerty Market Rating dropped again this month, albeit by only 0.04 points, to 59.77. This is the first time that the Market Rating has stayed below 60 for two consecutive months in over 14 years. Prior to 2012, a Market Rating score below 60 was relatively common, but the current value of 59.77 is only the lowest it’s been since the fall of 2020.
The Hagerty Market Index, an open-ended stock market-style version of the Market Rating, has dropped six months in a row to its lowest point in three-and-a-half years. The current value of 173.46 is still relatively high compared to any time prior to 2015, but we have seen the Market Index drop for 29 out of the last 31 months since it’s peak in late 2022, falling by 16%.
One of the few bright spots this month was on the private side of the market, with cars trading hands outside of auctions doing so at higher prices. The real-dollar, average sale price is at its highest point in three-and-a-half years. When adjusted for inflation, the average sale price is still above any point in the past two years. The ratio of cars selling above their insured value, meanwhile, has been dropping steadily as the market cools. This ratio has dropped 34 of the last 35 months and it’s current value of 37.3% is the lowest its been since the start of 2022.
By contrast, in the public auction world, the amount of cars sold continues to rise as their median prices fall. The current median sale price of $27,038 is the lowest this metric has been since the start of the Covid pandemic in May 2020, when live auctions were canceled. When adjusted for inflation, the median sale price is the lowest we’ve seen since the metric was added to the Market Rating in 2011. This is partially due to auction companies listing more low-dollar cars to keep their volume high. Perhaps the high-dollar auctions in California next month will reverse the course.
We check in with industry experts each month for the Market Rating, and they aren’t optimistic. Their market outlook, on a 0-100 scale, has hovered between 49 and 51 for the past nine months. They are curious how the decline in the US dollar vs other currencies will effect prices at Monterey. Many cars from Europe are making the trip to the Monterey auctions and a weak dollar won’t improve their chances of selling for record prices. On top of that, the greater economy is in a state of limbo, magnifying the fiscal uncertainty many collectors are facing. As noted auction analyst, Rick Carey, put it, “How many American collectors want to spend money on non-essentials right now unless they have their hands clapped tightly over their ears while loudly screaming ‘La-la-la-la’ to drown out the unsettled U.S. economy’s uncertainty?”
At the start of the month, a new edition of the Hagerty Price Guide was released, reflecting the real value changes of 40,000 vehicles. Seeing its first increase in six months and its second largest increase in over two years, the Hagerty Hundred, a weighted average of the #2 (“excellent”) condition value of the 100 most commonly insured vehicles in the Hagerty Price Guide (the full list is available here) was the one positive highlight from this release. Overall, values are down, with the Average and Median condition #3 (“good”) value either dropping or not outpacing inflation. The Blue Chip Index, comprised of the average #2 condition value of 25 seven-figure cars, saw its biggest drop in nine months. This segment of the market will be tested next month at the Monterey auctions, though the results from there won’t hit the market rating until the September update.
Look Stocks are up and the car market slows a little but you will not lose out on anything unless you over paid on the wrong model.
Cars are a long term investment like many stocks and you can just panic on a slow quarter, week or day.
On the other hand my Nividia it doing well so diversify if you can,.
Buy what you like and don’t overpay. Looking to flip it next month you might be disappointed but over time it’s less likely.
