I don't know if you've heard, but filling your car up is a little more expensive than it was a couple of weeks ago. California, of course, pays the highest prices, but even in Comanche County, Oklahoma, the cheapest county for gas in the state with the lowest average price, gas is more than $3 a gallon. Which isn't exactly ideal in a country dealing with an ongoing cost-of-living crisis, and driving is pretty much mandatory if you ever want to leave your house. Especially with CNN reporting that we can expect pricey gas to stick around even if Trump ends the war with Iran.
Of course, that doesn't mean reaching a deal with Iran and bringing the war to an end would be a bad thing. Less death and destruction is, after all, better than more death and destruction. Unfortunately for those struggling to afford the higher cost of fuel, this war has likely screwed things up for a while, even beyond the cost of fuel, and we probably won't see gas prices return to pre-war levels until after oil production is restored to previous levels, which won't and literally can't happen overnight. As CNN put it:
But a lot needs to happen for gas prices to sink back to the sub-$3 range from before the war: Iran needs to open the Strait of Hormuz. Oil production needs to come fully back online. And lower crude prices need to make their way through the system. None of that is guaranteed. Even if it were, it's not a fast process.
So that's not great news. Especially if you run a trucking company and are getting eaten alive by $5.35 diesel or just don't make enough money to cover your new, higher transportation costs.
The U.S. needs Iran
At the moment, it's hard to tell how close the U.S. and Israel are to making a deal with Iran or if a deal is even on the table. Trump's comments and posts on Truth Social paint a picture of a war that's basically over, but Iran has has denied reports that it's already negotiating for an end to the war, and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to any ships that don't have Iran's explicit permission to pass safely. Until that changes, expect gas prices in the U.S. to keep climbing.
On Monday, Trump told CNN he expects to reopen the strait soon but added the caveat that that's dependent on the negotiations being fruitful. He then claimed his plan is for the U.S. and Iran to share the strait, saying it would be controlled by "me and the Ayatollah." That may sound like a great plan if you're 12, but for some reason, the experts don't appear to be convinced that the new, less-moderate leader of Iran would allow the country that started the war that butchered his family to share control of such an important shipping lane:
That's a crucial admission and the crux of the problem: The United States doesn't currently control the strait — Iran does. Closing off
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Oil production restoration and supply chain recovery take months even after conflicts end.
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High fuel costs ripple through the entire economy, hitting transportation and goods prices hardest.
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Iran controls 20% of global oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint.