Forecasts by the UK’s Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders predict diesel will dip below 5% of new car sales in 2025, dropping to near zero by 2030 under current phase-out plans. This steep decrease is driven by stringent emissions regulations, urban pollution controls, and government mandates banning new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2030–2035.
In Europe, diesel’s decline is equally pronounced. Its market share fell from about 44% in 2017 to 13.6% in 2023. Germany, Italy, and France have all reported significant reductions in diesel demand in 2025 compared to previous years. These shifts coincide with rising electric vehicle (EV) adoption and growth in petrol-hybrid popularity as manufacturers pivot toward cleaner powertrains amidst tougher emissions targets.
The USA shows a slower but clear downward trend in diesel vehicles, which historically held a smaller market share focused more on trucks and commercial vehicles rather than passenger cars. Increasing emphasis on electrification and tightening environmental standards are contributing to a shrinking diesel segment there as well.
Key factors driving diesel’s global downturn include regulatory zero-emission vehicle mandates, heavy penalties and taxes on high-polluting engines, and urban low-emission zones disincentivizing diesel ownership. Advances in EV infrastructure and falling battery costs also hasten consumer shifts away from diesel.
Market analysts agree that by the early 2030s, diesel new car sales will be a rarity if not completely phased out in most advanced markets. Europe and the UK lead this transition with aggressive policies, while the US charts a steady course toward electrification.
This global collapse in diesel sales signifies a fundamental reshaping of the automotive market, with electric, hybrid, and alternative fuels poised to dominate the future of sustainable mobility.